This study of five countries in sub-Saharan Africa finds that while climate variability is associated with the onset of conflict, improvements in local state capacity may enable responsiveness to climate-related challenges that give rise to conflict. These findings are important in light of the fact that funding for climate adaptation is disproportionately less for fragile states, and rarely makes it outside of capitals, with only approximately 10% of climate finance reaching local levels. With COVID‑19 and other acute crises demanding increasing resources, there is an urgent need for donors to think differently about climate adaptation funding. Improving local state capacity promises to achieve multiple goals, including possibly reducing the risk of climate change increasing conflict.