The year 2050: The earth's population numbers over nine billion, of which about half lives in the tropics and subtropics – regions where the impact of climate change is most apparent. Extreme heat, droughts and chronic water scarcity make farming impossible, thus endangering the very basis of survival. This is the grim scenario painted by David S. Battisti and Rosamond L. Naylor, authors of the article “Historical Warnings of Future Food Insecurity with Unprecedented Seasonal Heat”, which appeared in the January issue of Science.

The recent food crisis has provided a glimpse of what the coming decades hold. It has also demonstrated how such crises can explode in social unrest. As the population grows, so does global demand for food. According to World Bank estimates this demand will grow by 50 percent by 2030 and food prices will increase drastically in the long term, following their current recovery. These developments, coupled with the disastrous impacts of climate change, will impact the poor the most.

Decision makers must take advantage of the current low food prices to ensure long term food security, says Alex Evans in his report for the think tank Chatham House entitled "The feeding of the nine billion. Global food security for the 21st century". He proposes the formation of an organisation along the lines of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that will stock emergency grain reserves much like the IEA maintains oil reserves.

He advises developing countries to invest more in agriculture and particularly in supporting smallholder farm enterprises, on which 1.5 billion people already depend. In his report, Evans also recommends using adaptable grain varieties rather than ever increasing amounts of fertilizer. Further points in his action plan include assistance for developing technical and social infrastructure as well as facilitating market access, if we are to avoid heading towards a humanitarian disaster by 2050. (Monika Kronz)



For the report "The feeding of the nine billion. Global food security for the 21st century" please see: http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/694/



The Science article "Historical Warnings of Future Food Insecurity with Unprecedented Seasonal Heat" is available at: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/sci;323/5911/240

Published in:ECC-Newsletter, February 2009