Nations around the world find themselves in the awkward situation of having developed institutions and strategies under the premise of a stable climate. This list of ill-prepared nations includes the industrial nations in Northern America and Europe, including Russia, all of which are barely prepared for changing climatic conditions. However, in the debate on the security implications of climate change, priority is most often given to the developing countries and fragile states. The geo-political and geo-economic consequences of climate change have now been addressed in the publication "Global Warring: How Environmental, Economic and Political Crisis Will Redraw the World Map," by Cleo Paskal, Associate Fellow at Chatham House.



The author’s analysis of the potential developments for the Pacific Island states offers some interesting new perspectives. While these states are almost exclusively recognized as places with future "climate refugees," Paskal emphasizes the political implications of climate change for the region: currently, countries like China, Australia and Taiwan compete for the island states’ favour by providing financial and economic support. Thereby, the author argues, they hope to obtain the support of the island states in international organizations or secure access to the region’s vast maritime territories, which not only include rich fishing grounds but would also open up new opportunities for further economic exploitation, such as seabed mining.



Besides the Pacific, Paskal also highlights the importance of monsoons to Southern Asia and the climate-related changes in the Arctic. What becomes clear is an urgent need for all nations to change the ways they perceive the environment. According to Paskal, this perception should be based on the awareness that predictable absolute terms – such as stable regional climatic conditions – through climate change will become variable. (Achim Maas)



The book "Global Warring. How Environmental, Economic and Political Crisis will Redraw the World Map" is available at http://www.palgrave.com/products/title.aspx?PID=385874



More information on the Energy, Environment and Development Programme at Chatham House is available at http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/about/directory/view/-/id/87/

Published in: ECC-Newsletter, April 2010