Climate change is the most pressing global threat to environmental integrity and human wellbeing, compounding the risks already faced by fragile and conflict-affected states. Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are disproportionately affected by conflict, as they confront extreme poverty, institutional weakness, and the disruptive impacts of climate change. This white paper examines how climate change contributes to conflict in three LDCs: Mali, Centeral African Republic (CAR), and Ethiopia. It draws on a mixed-methods approach that integrates qualitative and quantitative analysis, and highlights how environmental degradation, resource competition, displacement, and weak governance create feedback loops that escalate violence and undermine resilience.

Key findings include: 

• Environmental stress acts as a threat multiplier, intensifying underlying grievances.
• Past conflict can erode or, in some cases, stimulate adaptive mechanisms at the local level.
• Migration, often a coping strategy, can itself become a source of tension. Governance quality significantly shapes resilience, with state fragility worsening the negative impacts of climate shocks.

The paper offers actionable recommendations: 

• Integrate climate adaptation with peace building and conflict prevention.
• Build inclusive, decentralised governance structures to manage resources fairly.
• Strengthen local capacities, early warning systems, and data systems.
• Mobilise international cooperation and funding tailored to LDC needs. 

The intersection of climate, peace, and security (CPS) has gained increasing attention within global policy debates, including at the United Nations, African Union, and among international development actors. Many reports have also highlighted the ways in which climate change acts as a threat multiplier, intensifying vulnerabilities in fragile and conflict-affected states. However, much of this discourse continues to frame LDCs primarily as recipients of external assistance, focusing on risk and crisis rather than on resilience and opportunity. This paper builds on existing CPS discussions but aims to advance the debate by foregrounding the agency of LDCs themselves. It argues that by actively shaping the CPS agenda, LDCs can reposition themselves not merely as passive beneficiaries, but as innovators and leaders in developing context-specific, locally driven solutions. By combining conceptual analysis with quantitative case study evidence from Mali, the Central African Republic, and Ethiopia, this paper seeks to offer both empirical insights and practical recommendations for strengthening the role of LDCs in global climate-security governance.

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The description was extracted from OIPMA's website and the report's executive summary.