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This research was undertaken as part of the MECMEA project: Managing the impacts of environmental change and conflict on mobility in Eastern Africa through evidence-based inclusive policy dialogue and collaborative actions. The project is made up of a consortium of members lead by the Horn of Africa Regional Environment Centre and Network (HoA-REC&N), and including Mixed Migration Centre (MMC), Association Djibouti Nature, South Sudan Nature Conservation Organization (SSNCO), PanAfricare Kenya.

This publication was produced with the financial assistance of the European Union, contracted by the International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD), through the Migration and Mobility Dialogue (MMD) Grant Facility.

This report syntheses the current knowledge on the complex interlinkages between environmental degradation, climate change, conflict, and human mobility in the East and Horn of Africa. The region faces severe climate stresses and hazards, including recurrent 
droughts, erratic rainfall, extreme heat, and environmental degradation, which are drivers of displacement and migration. These challenges are further exacerbated by fragile governance structures and limited adaptive capacity, intensifying the region’s vulnerability to climate-induced displacement and socio-political instability. 

Related publication: 

Africa Climate Security Risk Assessment

 

Key Findings:

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and accelerating land degradation, desertification, and water scarcity, leading to the displacement of millions. Pastoralist and farming communities are particularly affected, as their livelihoods, food and water security depend on natural resources that are increasingly under threat from environmental degradation and climate change. Migration, often considered as a traditional coping strategy, has become a necessity. However, access to mobility is highly unequal. Many are becoming trapped in hazardous environments, heightening their risk of exposure to climate change, fragility, and conflict. As climate pressures intensify, World Bank projections suggest that 6.9 to 10.1 million people in the East and Horn of Africa region could be displaced by 2050. 

Human mobility has significant implications for environmental management, particularly in regions marked by ecological fragility and climate stress, such as the East and Horn of Africa region. Migration can inadvertently contribute to environmental harm, particularly when unregulated or poorly planned. Migration flows can strain resources, basic services, and infrastructure, leading to environmental degradation and tensions with host communities. Yet, migration can also be a positive force for adaptation, providing remittances and fostering positive coping mechanisms such as adopting diversified livelihoods and sustainable environmental management practices.

Mobility and conflict dynamics in the East and Horn of Africa region are shaped by a complex interplay of environmental stressors, governance challenges, and socio-political contexts. Climate change acts as a threat multiplier, amplifying underlying socio-political grievances and contributing to conflict and displacement. Yet, the impact of displacement on social cohesion is not uniform. The influx of displaced persons can undermine the social fabric of host communities where integration policies are weak or absent. Disparities in resource allocation, service provision, and livelihood opportunities can also amplify underlying socio-political grievances, heighten perceptions of inequality, and social exclusion,increasing the risk of displacement and conflict. However, under the right conditions, displacement can also present opportunities for strengthening social cohesion and promoting peaceful coexistence. Climate change and environmental degradation rarely cause conflict on their own, but they significantly exacerbate existing vulnerabilities and tensions. Key mechanisms through which environmental degradation and climate change influence conflict are the erosion of livelihoods, changing migratory patterns, tensions over natural resources, climate-related disasters, widespread habitat destruction, loss of biodiversity, and increased environmental crime in fragile and conflict affected areas or in places with weak governance structures.

Adaptation efforts remain insufficient. Few countries include climate-displaced populations in national strategies. Vulnerable groups—including women, children, persons with disabilities, and trapped populations—face the highest protection risks, yet receive the least support. Regional organisations such as the AU and IGAD offer platforms for international cooperation, and regional frameworks like the Kampala Convention and the Khartoum Process offer promising foundations. However, many national adaptation plans and climate strategies fail to adequately include displaced populations, while national policy responses remain fragmented and often under prioritised. A more coordinated, inclusive, and conflict-sensitive approach is urgently needed. This includes integrating migration into climate adaptation plans, improving governance in host areas, investing in social protection systems, and recognising the agency and needs of displaced communities, among others. In order to achieve this, there is a need to bridge the research, capacity, and most importantly, the policy gaps at national and regional levels.

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The description was extracted from the Mixed Migration Centre's website and the report's summary and key findings.