The timing did not come by surprise: Right before the beginning of the world climate conference in Durban, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its special report, “Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation”. This report is a large step towards further integration of two still separate communities: those working on climate change adaptation on the one hand, and those dealing with disaster management on the other hand. To design and implement future policy measures, these groups will need to continue to merge in the future.
By clearly outlining the quality of knowledge, the IPCC found a precise language to tell decision makers the inconvenient truth: Some disaster-relevant climate change trends are virtually certain with a 99 to 100 percent probability. One trend, for example, is global increases in the frequency of warm daily temperature extremes throughout the 21st century. Other trends are very likely, with a probability above 90 percent. For example, the forecast of heat waves that will increase in length, frequency, or intensity over most land areas. The report also stresses that developing countries are more sensitive to these impacts than other countries: From 1970-2008, more than 95 percent of natural-disaster-related deaths occurred in these countries. Equally important is the notion that for exposed and vulnerable communities, even non-extreme weather and climate events can have extreme impacts. 6 million homeless as a result of the floods in Pakistan this year give a taste of what disasters can cause in countries lacking the adaptive capacities to prepare appropriately.
In a comment on the report, the international aid and development agency Tearfund highlights the costs for action versus inaction. Tearfund cited General Nadeem Ahmed, chairman of Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA), who stated that nearly $12 billion in losses and disaster relief costs would have been saved by spending only $40 million on flood defenses. In addition, the IPCC writes that many approaches for managing risks will have additional benefits, such as improving peoples’ livelihoods, conserving biodiversity, and improving human well-being. However, in light of the insufficient results of the Durban conference, we may assess that the probability of further inaction is very likely, i.e. above 90 percent. (Dennis Taenzler)
For the special report, please see www.ipcc.ch
The Tearfund reaction is available here.
Published in: ECC-Newsletter, 6/2011
