Ten years after the Paris Agreement, the world faces a fundamental transformation of the geopolitical and climate policy landscape. China has emerged as the globally dominant power in clean technology manufacturing, the United States under Trump has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement and is actively promoting fossil fuel expansion, while the US attack on Iran has triggered a global energy crisis that may paradoxically accelerate the clean energy transition. The EU stands at a crossroads: dependent on fossil fuel imports from the US and key technologies from China, yet simultaneously the most ambitious climate actor among major economies.
This study examines how the EU and China interact in Global South countries in support of net-zero development — whether complementarily, cooperatively, or competitively. While China excels through unmatched manufacturing capacity, rapid project delivery, and minimal conditionalities, the EU holds considerable strengths of its own: de-risking financial instruments, regulatory power, technical expertise, and diplomatic capital. Both approaches have gaps: China’s model creates dependencies and lacks transparency, while the EU suffers from institutional fragmentation, declining ODA budgets, and slow implementation.
Drawing on case studies from Kenya, South Africa, the Philippines, Namibia, Morocco, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, the the study shows that the dynamics between European and Chinese engagement are rarely straightforward. Where recipient countries act as strategic agents in their own right — orchestrating separate partnerships rather than depending on either power unilaterally — more equitable and effective outcomes tend to emerge.
These cases also illustrate where the EU loses credibility through bureaucratic barriers, unfulfilled political commitments, or absent commercial follow-through. The study concludes with concrete recommendations: the EU should pursue a pragmatic China climate policy that cooperates, complements, or competes depending on context — consistently leveraging its strengths in governance, systems integration, and risk mitigation to build resilient, equitable, and future-proof value chains with partner countries across the Global South.
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The description is extracted from the report's executive summary.
