Many existing water-sharing treaties should be re-assessed in the context of climate change, write Shlomi Dinar, David Katz, Lucia De Stefano, and Brian Blakespoor in a World Bank working paper.

While “water wars” have historically been incredibly rare, the changes to water systems wrought by climate change may change things. “Environmental changes may aggravate political tensions, especially in regions that are not equipped with an appropriate institutional apparatus,” the authors say.
“Once variability increases beyond a certain threshold, cooperative behavior is negatively affected”

The working paper analyzes water bodies that cross state borders and the treaties that govern them. Contrary to popular belief, Dinar et al. find that cooperation between states increases as water variability rises, but only to a point. Widespread changes in rainfall amount and predictability may cause increased water stress and/or flooding that affect core national interests and force states to take defensive postures over who controls their water sources. “Once variability increases beyond a certain threshold, cooperative behavior is negatively affected,” write the authors.

Well-defined, yet flexible treaties and strong institutional mechanisms are needed to decrease the likelihood of conflict as societies adjust.

For the complete article, please see New Security Beat.