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Food and Conflict

"Our security as a global community depends on the extent to which we preserve our soils because enhancing soil anywhere enhances life everywhere, and grounds security."

Luc Gnacadja, Executive Secretary, UN Convention to Combat Desertification, 10 July 2010

 

Perspectives

  • Rising probability of agricultural production losses - in Sub-Saharan Africa up to 50% by 2020
  • Different regional balances between climate change and agricultural productivity
  • Shifting optimal growing seasons for various agricultural products
  • Drastic increase in the need for irrigation as a result of rises in temperature, high evaporation and lacking precipitation
  • Global food crises as trigger for local upheavals in the past

 FactSheetFood

Prevalence of undernourishment in developing countries. Source: FAO.

Climate Trends

  • By 2020 reduction of agricultural production in Sub-Sahara Africa up to 50%, with water scarcity tripling
  • In order to compensate climate-related losses in productivity by 2050, investments of $7 billion US are required annually
  • As a result of climate change, by 2050, prices for several commodity foods could increase two to three times more than they would without climate change (IFPRI)
  • By 2080, global grain production will decrease by 16% without additional carbon fertilization

 

Examples of the Nexus Between Food and Conflict

  • The famine at the Horn of Africa in 2011 affected 13 million people. One of the resulting consequences was increased migration to neighbouring countries
  • Example Egypt - Extreme dependence on the Nile water combined with high population growth (forecast: doubling to 160 million by 2050). The state is increasingly investing in agricultural lands in Sudan. Already today, Egypt covers more than one third of its grain demand by imports and is thus the biggest importer of grain in the world-  making it highly vulnerable to rising prices

 

Further Literature (Selection)

  • Lester Brown: The New Geopolitics of Food. Foreign Policy.
  • Nelson, Gerald C. et al. 2010: Food Security and Climate Change. Challenges to 2050 and Beyond. IFRPI Issue Brief 66. International Food Policy Research Institute.
  • Bruce, John und Karol Boudreaux 2011: Land Disputes and Land Conflict. Property Rights and Resource Governance Briefing Paper #12. USAID.
  • Bora, Saswati et al. 2010: Food Security and Conflict. World Development Report 2011 Background Paper. Washington D.C.: World Bank.
  • For more literature on land & food, see [link on webpage Land & Food]

 

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