On February 14-16, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) jointly with the European Environment Agency (EEA) and the Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC) conducted a scenario workshop in Lviv, Ukraine. The workshop explored how different impacts of climate change and degrees of globalization may impact food security in Eastern Europe. Aside from experts from Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine, the workshop was attended by several international experts and representatives of international organizations.

A clear outcome of the discussion was that climate change may result in more varied impacts for Eastern Europe than for other regions. In case of only limited global and thus regional warming, climate change could actually boost agricultural productivity in the region. This would give Eastern Europe a competitive advantage internationally, as most regions in the world are projected to experience a decline in production. However, adaptation measures are still necessary and the current agricultural sector is less efficient than those of other regions. The zones most suitable for agriculture will likely shift northward, requiring new investments.

It is not guaranteed, however, that the population will benefit from increased production. Currently, households spend between 40 and 50 percent of their income on food purchases. Should markets be opened further, prices will rise, despite increasing regional production. This paradoxical consequence could occur as a result of globally declining production, increasing demand as a result of population growth and changing consumption patterns, and liberalized trade driving global rather than regional or local prices for goods. Thus, should an open market strategy be pursued, it would require complementary social and economic policies, in addition to adaptation measures and investment into the agricultural sector, to keep prices down.

Improving human, institutional, and technical capacities, as well as good governance and early action, were discussed as important measures to minimize the threats and harness the opportunities of climate change. In particular, the period until 2030 was identified as critical to design and implement relevant policy measures. (Achim Maas)

Further information on the OSCE and the FAO can be found at www.osce.org and http://www.fao.org/.

If you want to know more about the corresponding project carried out by adelphi, please visit the following website: http://www.adelphi.de/en/resources/project_database/dok/43525.php?pid=408.

Published in: ECC-Newsletter, 1/2011