On Thursday 23 July the IISS hosted a roundtable on "How states react to water stress: Recommendations for Long-Term Strategic Planning in a Warming Climate". The event, which took place in London, saw the participation of over 20 international representatives from government agencies, research and academic institutions, and NGOs.  One of the main achievements of the event was convening experts from different sectors, such as science, policy, political science and the military, all with the same goal to gain a better understanding of water security.

Everyone agreed that climate change was now part of the security agenda and that water security issues, in particular, had the potential for exacerbating disputes and triggering a domino effect in terms of food scarcity, migration flaws and pandemics.  The starting point of the discussion was to establish what areas of the world would be most vulnerable to water insecurity and which of these would be at greatest risk of destabilization. Central and South Asia where identified as the most vulnerable regions.

The discussion was structured around four questions. In the first two sessions on "Cross border and water conflicts" and "Civil conflicts" experts were asked how to resolve and avoid disputes – both between and within states when water supplies are reduced by climate change.   Could water shortages fuel wars: experts thought it’s not likely, but it needs to be discussed.  The afternoon session addressed the issue of adaptation, specifically what new technologies, management principles, or governance are needed to alleviate the pressures of water shortages. Special focus was given on how governments could incentivize the development and deployment of such technologies. The day ended by looking at worst case scenarios and producing policy recommendations for the international community in the event climate change caused long-term drought and state instability.

Throughout the day four main concepts emerged as predominant. First was the concept of basin hegemons such as China, India, Turkey and Egypt. The main issue related to water hegemony is the creation of an asymmetric balance of power among states sharing a river basin.   Second was the debate over the need for a more efficient international architecture for dealing with water insecurity. Participants were divided over whether regional and local solutions should, at times, take priority over international arrangements. A third recurrent point related to the definition of water security itself. Indeed, some experts stressed that security goes beyond the issue of scarcity and it also concerns the quality of water and its availability. Finally, vulnerability was a main point for discussion. Assessing the level of vulnerability of a given area or community was deemed essential in predicting the degree of damage lack of water security could cause.

The IISS will produce a brief working paper with the results of this workshop.  The next programme of the Transatlantic Dialogue on Climate Change and Security will be a workshop looking closely at the issue of how to maintain food security in a world stressed by climate change. (IISS)

More information on the IISS Workshop - Conflict and Competition over Changing Water Resources is available hier.