The future water supply of India will undergo dramatic changes. This is a known fact. India needs, therefore, to be regarded as a laboratory for climate security. A new report published by the Indian Institute for Defense and Security Analysis (IDSA) outlines the key reasons for this development: a high probability of severe water stress in many parts of India, the high dependency on agricultural productivity, population dynamics, and numerous transboundary rivers.

In the report, IDSA systematically outlines the specific conditions of bilateral water-relations of India with Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and China. The main finding is that there is a tremendous need for tailor-made water diplomacy and a redefinition of Indian interests in water supply, particularly in relation to the expected impacts of climate change.

To this end, India’s vision of itself as an upper riparian state is hardly adequate. The origins of the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra are either partly or completely located outside - and upstream - of India in Nepal or China. As a medium riparian state, however, the authors recommend more intensive cooperation especially with neighbouring Nepal. The same goes for Pakistan, where the Indus treaty has served as a profound platform of cooperation since 1960. However, the report also refers to the negative impacts of terror activities in the neighbouring country which may endanger this long tradition of water cooperation.

Similar are the prospects of Indo-Chinese water diplomacy – especially due to the important role of Tibet for India’s water security. Apart from negative climatic trends, China’s intention to build dams such as the Yarlung-Tsangpo pose a serious challenge for bilateral relations. When visiting the “policy laboratory” to find solutions for climate security in India and beyond, decision makers should especially be aware of the report’s cover, which depicts the map of the region’s water courses without outlining political borders and impressively illustrates the regional character of water supply. Today, however, comprehensive cooperation (e.g., embodied by a regional adaptation strategy) is far from a reality. (Dennis Taenzler)

For the report “Water Security for India: The External Dynamics”, please check www.idsa.in.

Another recent report on the relationship between water and security, prepared by adelphi and published by German Technical Cooperation (gtz), is available at http://www.gtz.de/de/dokumente/gtz2010-en-water-security-nexus.pdf.

Published in: ECC-Newsletter, Ocotber 2010