"If climate change goes unchecked, and if we fail to find sustainable solutions for displaced populations, we will be creating the conditions in which further breaches of international peace and security are certain to take place."

UN-Commissioner for refugees António Guterres,

22. November 2011

Perspectives

• Climate change and environmental degradation are the predominant reason for increased internal migration
• Migration has traditionally been a way to adapt to environmental changes, however refugee areas are now shrinking
• Many smaller island states will be confronted with resettlement as the only remaining option, but the legal status of such populations group is unclear
• Mass migration can have destabilizing effects in destination countries, intensifying existing conflicts (For example: Palestinian refugees in Jordan)

Example Africa: Climatic hotspots and migration routes along the axis Nigeria-Niger-Algeria-Morocco. Source: Center for America Progress.

Climate Trends

• Today, there are approximately 700 million internal migrants (not only due to climate change) (UNDP Human Development Report 2011)
• In 2008, there were approximately 214 million cross- border migrants. 20 million migrants left their home country due to rising sea-levels, desertification and flooding.
• Significantly diverging estimates exist regarding possible future climate-related migration: Between 250 Mio. und 1 Billion people by 2050 (IOM 2012)

Selected Reading

• UNEP 2011: Livelihood Security: Climate Change, Migration and Conflict in the Sahel. Nairobi.
• Black, Richard et al. 2011: Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change. Final Project Report. London: The Government Office for Science.
• UNHCR 2008: Climate change and forced migration. New Issues in Climate Change Research (Research Paper No. 153)
• Warner, K. et al. 2009: In Search of Shelter: Mapping the Effects of Climate Change on Human Migration and Displacement. CARE International.
• For more on environmental migration, please see here [publications migration]

Initiatives, Databases and Multimedia Resources

• Initiative: Convention For Persons Displaced By Climate Change
• Initiative: Transatlantic Studies Team on Climate Change and Migration
• Artikel: UNEP Maps Conflict, Migration, Environmental Vulnerability In the Sahel
• Video (Length 6:46): The Nexus of Climate Change, Migration, and Security
• Video (Length 5:15): Jon Barnett - Climate Change, Small Island States, and Migration
• Video (Length 2:02): Loren Landau - We Need to Move Beyond Traditional Views of Migration

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Water Scarcity and Conflict