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Natural Disasters and Conflict

"Extreme weather events continue to grow more frequent and intense in rich and poor countries alike, not only devastating lives, but also infrastructure, institutions, and budgets – an unholy brew which can create dangerous security vacuums."

- UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, 20 July 2011

 

Perspectives

  • Natural disasters create high economic and social costs and are obstacles to social and economic development in the affected areas.
  • Deficits in disaster preparedness and management can result in tensions among the population (e.g. flooding 2010 in Pakistan)
  • Further destabilization of already unstable states and regions is possible: Bangladesh, Myanmar, Honduras, Nicaragua are most affected by natural disasters
  • Increased migration from regions affected by droughts, flooding and other climate change-related natural catastrophes.
  • Border disputes and the relocation of entire population groups are looming.

 

 Disasters

Hotspots of natural disasters caused by climate change. Source: Wikimedia Commons

Climate Trends

  • 95% of deaths caused by natural catastrophes in the period 1970-2008 occurred in developing countries (UNDP 2012).
  • The economic damages caused by catastrophes are three to ten times higher in low- or middle-income countries than in high-income countries (relative to GDP)
  • Threat from storms: increases in wind speed of hurricanes up to 5-10% will lead to a doubling of the annual damage costs in the USA.
  • Threat of a 30 cm sea-level rise by 2100 would affect 40% of the Asian population; approximately 70% of the population and infrastructure of Samoa are in proximity to the coastline.

 

Crisis Situations

  • Egypt - More than one third of the agricultural production of Egypt is located in the Nile Delta. A rise of the sea level of more than one meter would displace more than six million people and destroy 4,500 km2 of agricultural area (Human Development Report 2007/2008).
  • Pakistan - The flooding in 2010 affected three million people. In cities such as Nowshera, people protested for better food security and urgently needed medication, protests were accompanied by the outbreak of cholera.
  • Smaller island states - The particular threat that many pacific island states, such as Kiribati, have to face has been illustrated by the disastrous effects of La Nina in 1998-2000: water shortages resulted in losses in trade and tourism, harming the economy. The export-oriented agriculture (cultivation of sugar cane) was especially affected.
  • Heat waves in Europe in 2003 caused 13,000 deaths and created immense damage to agriculture equivalent to $1.5 billion US

 

Further Literature

  • IPCC 2011: Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. Genf
  • Germanwatch: Global Climate Risk Index 2012, Bonn
  • Chafe, Zo? und Michael Renner 2007: Beyond Disasters: Creating opportunities for peace. Worldwatch Institute.

 

Multimedia Resources