Following the meager results of the climate negotiations in Copenhagen, it no longer seems realistic that the rise in global temperatures can be restricted to 2°C. The potential consequences have been termed "dramatic" by several authors. At the "Climate Change and Security" conference, held at the Norwegian Society of Sciences and Letters in Trondheim from 21-24 June 2010, about 100 experts examined the impact of climate change on peace, conflict and security.



With its overarching theme of climate change and security, the conference covered a range of issues and regions. Many of the presentations focused on Africa and the impact of climate change on armed conflicts. There was broad agreement that climate change will have a series of challenging impacts, especially in the areas of food supply, health, disaster protection and economic development. Several participants, however, questioned whether these impacts could really reverse the general trend towards a more peaceful word – the number of internal wars and those between countries has been steadily declining.



It was striking that several presentations adopted a historical approach. Many of the scholars felt that in the past decades there was no significant link between climate change and conflict. However, this approach is itself debatable. During the decades in question, parameters such as rainfall patterns fluctuated within known limits. The affected societies were able to adjust to changes over a period of centuries. Climate change, on the other hand, will likely lead to greater changes in these parameters in shorter periods. Moreover, there is hardly any historical precedent for climate change phenomena, such as Arctic melting. The same is true of several other historical examples, such as the Cold War producing a multipolar world. It remains an open question whether climate change will actually result in more conflicts – or more cooperation. Regardless, "looking in the rearview mirror" is hardly an adequate method of making policy decisions. (Achim Maas)



More information on the conference and presentations are available at http://climsec.prio.no/

Published in: ECC-Newsletter, August 2010