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Water Scarcity and Conflict

"The General Assembly recognizes the right to safe and clean drinking water and sanitation as a human right that is essential for the full enjoyment of life and all human rights [...]"

UNGA Resolution 64/29, 28 July 2010

 

Perspectives

  • By 2025, one third of the world population will suffer from intensified water scarcity as a result of climate change
  • Affected areas are regional river basins in Australia, India, southern Africa, large parts of South America and the Middle East
  • The result is a re-negotiation process of agreements on shared river basins that constitute the fundamental pillars of cooperation in these regions
  • The use of shared water resources is already influencing neighbour relations, e.g. in the Indus Basin between India and Pakistan, the Amu-Arya-Syr-Darya Basin, and the Mekong Basin
  • The strategic importance of water resources will increase

 FactSheetWater

Estimated changes in water availability. Source: Arnell 2004.

Climate Trends

  • Water run-off is set to increase up to 10-40% in higher altitudes and tropical wetlands by 2050, particularly in East- and Southeast Asia
  • Water run-off will decrease by 10-30% in middle latitudes and tropical drylands by 2050
  • Extreme droughts that take place only every 100 years can appear every 10 years by 2070
  • Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi-Arabia und Libya are the countries with the highest risk of water stress (Water Stress Index 2011 according to Maplecroft)
  • Irrigation uses 70% of the water resources, hence water scarcity has a direct impact on food security

 

Examples of the Nexus Between Water and Conflict

  • Indus - Conflicts between India and Pakistan over the distribution of the Indus water, since 1960 settled by the Indus Water Treaty
  • Amu-Darya-Syr-Darya Basin in Central Asia - Competing claims over water for agricultural irrigation and energy consumption
  • Mekong Basin - Tensions between the bordering states Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and China on the construction of hydropower plants, since 1948 Mekong Commission
  • Nile Basin - Extreme dependence of Egypt on the Nile; Egypt's water consumption is already exceeding the freshwater resources at its disposal. Extreme climate change and population growth increase the need for water coupled with decreasing water resources. An intensification of tensions between Egypt and the other Nile-dependent states with climate change is to be expected. Egypt insists on water distribution rights dating back to 1929

 

Further Literature

  • OECD 2005: Water and Violent Conflict - Issue Brief. Paris.
  • GTZ 2010: The Water Security Nexus. Challenges and Opportunities for Development Cooperation. Eschborn.
  • US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations 2011: Avoiding Water Wars: Water Scarcity and Central Asia's Growing Importance for Stability in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Washington, DC.

 

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