Geopolitics of Climate Change
To achieve the goal of the Paris Agreement, virtually all countries around the world have to remove carbon and other GHGs from their energy systems and broader economies. This will affect patterns in resource demand in the future, which presents a significant risk for certain countries and an opportunity for others. For example, oil-exporting economies will have to deal with stranded assets, while mineral-exporting countries might benefit from a green transition. Another area where conflict risks need to be mitigated is the mushrooming extraction of raw materials.
Both the increased extraction of fossil fuels, minerals and other resources as well as shifting global demand patterns have wide-ranging consequences, including pollution, social disputes, and even conflict. Nations, corporations, and financial markets need to plan now to mitigate the risks posed to all countries by the energy transition away from fossil fuels. It is an international priority to enforce international and national regulations that protect the environment, and eventually transform the way we produce and consume goods and services. Countries with fewer resources to develop in a carbon-neutral way must receive special attention and support. Climate diplomacy offers a range of tools and entry points to achieve this.