Weathering Risk’s Climate Risk Profile: Iraq provides forward-looking data on the climatic situation in Iraq with the goal of supporting resilience-oriented long-term planning. The paper summarizes projected climate parameters and related sectoral impacts under two different emissions scenarios from now until 2080.
The climate models employed project that until 2080, under a medium to high emissions scenario, air temperatures will very likely rise by up to 4.8 °C, compared to pre-industrial levels. Such temperature increases pose a risk to the population’s ability to work and live and will increase heat-related mortalities. The climate models further include lower certainty projections for parameters including precipitation, water availability, agriculture, GDP exposure to heatwaves and ecosystems impacts.
These projected climate impacts will increase fragility risks associated with displacement and might further undermine local and regional stability. However, reliable data can enhance capacity for action and improve operational responses towards a more climate-resilient and peaceful future. When analysed alongside localised human security data, these projections can be used to inform climate-security risk assessments to support strategic and operational risk-informed decision making and identify entry points for action.
Such data can also inform peace operations on the ground. The recent mandate renewal of UNAMI (United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq) charged the mission with assisting the Government of Iraq in facilitating regional dialogue and cooperation to address the adverse impacts of climate change. Other actors can benefit too. Through the Weathering Risk Peace Pillar, for example, the Berghof Foundation will partner with an Iraqi organisation to conduct climate-focused mediation and peacebuilding on a local level in Iraq.
The climate projections presented in the Climate Risk Profile: Iraq are the product of a collaboration between Weathering Risk and the AGRICA project from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research (PIK). They draw on the data and modelling work done by PIK’s ISIMIP project.
This description is excerpted from weatheringrisk.org.