Amid the growing number of reports warning that climate change could threaten national security, another potentially dangerous – but counterintuitive – dimension has been largely ignored. Could efforts to reduce our carbon footprint and lower our vulnerability to climate change inadvertently exacerbate existing conflicts – or create new ones?  

If designed or implemented without consideration for conflict potential, unforeseen negative spillover effects might damage economic development prospects, undermine political stability, or fray the social fabric of communities. How can policymakers anticipate and minimize these potential risks? More ambitiously, can mitigation and adaptation efforts be designed to not only avoid conflict, but also help build peace?  

The potential security risks posed by mitigation and adaptation policies and technologies are intriguing and underexplored aspects of climate change responses. Backdraft: The Conflict Potential of Climate Mitigation and Adaptation draws on the insights of leading environmental security experts to examine different facets of the conflict potential of climate change mitigation and adaptation – not only physical violence, but also the broader spectrum of social and political confrontation. A parallel line of inquiry – the potential of climate mitigation and adaptation efforts to build peace and encourage cooperation – is not addressed in this series but holds great promise for future analysis.  

Defining Backdraft: A New Research Program  

Can subnational and transnational climate change adaptation be harnessed as a tool for peace? In their essay, “The Need for Conflict-Sensitive Adaptation to Climate Change,” Dennis Tänzler, Alexander Carius, and Achim Maas kick off Backdraft by placing different adaptation approaches in the context of current international climate talks. The authors urge policymakers to think beyond national borders in order to more effectively address the transboundary impacts of climate change in conflict settings. A series of policy recommendations provides the aid and development communities with a potential blueprint for conflict-sensitive adaptation measures.

With climate change slated to place further strain on the planet’s already overburdened natural resources, regions rich in natural wealth may find themselves increasingly drawn into conflict as competition for arable land, water, oil, and mineral wealth increases. In “Resource Curses: Redux, Ex-Post, or Ad Infinitum?” Stacy VanDeveer peers over the horizon, speculating about the fate of oil-exporting states as the world economy slowly transitions away from fossil fuels. Highlighting the complications inherent in petroleum states’ eventual transition away from an oil-based economy – a transition that will not be welcomed by OPEC member states – VanDeveer contends it is analytically important to examine how countries with significant depletions of fossil-fuel reserves have handled such transitions in the past. Using the lens of “peak oil,” he points out that a greener world energy supply might destabilize regimes traditionally propped up by oil revenue.  

For the complete article, please see New Security Beat.