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A New Climate for Peace: Infographics

Earth from space, 1999: Clouds and sunlight over the Indian Ocean seen from the Space Shuttle Discovery.

Pressures and shocks are expected to increase in the future


  • Cincotta, Richard 2012: Population aging: a demographic and geographic overview. Retrieved 10 Dec 2014, from….
  • IEA 2014: World energy investment outlook. Paris: IEA.
  • Kharas, Homi and Geoffrey Gertz 2010: The new global middle class: a crossover from west to east. In: Li, Cheng (ed.): China’s emerging middle class: beyond economic transformation. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.
  • Lagarde, Christine 2014: A new multilateralism for the 21st century: the Richard Dimbleby lecture. Retrieved 10 Dec 2014, from
  • Lee, Bernice; Felix Preston; Jaakko Kooroshy; Rob Bailey and Glada Lahn 2012: Resources futures. London: Royal Institute of International Affairs.
  • OECD 2013: Fragile states 2013: resource flows and trends in a shifting world. Paris: OECD.
  • UK MoD 2014: Strategic trends programme: global strategic trends - out to 2045. Shrivenham: UK Ministry of Defence.
  • UN-DESA 2014: World urbanization prospects: The 2014 revision. New York: United Nations.
  • US NIC 2012: Global trends 2030: alternative worlds. Retrieved 09 Jan 2015, from….

    Planetary boundaries

    Adapted from Steffen, Will et al. 2015: Planetary boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet. In: Science 347:6223. 

    Climate-risks are cross-cutting


    • IPCC 2014: Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.
    • UN-Water 2007: Coping with water scarcity: challenge of the twenty-first century. Geneva: United Nations.
    • WFP and Met Office 2012: Climate impacts on food security and nutrition. A review of existing knowledge. Exeter: WFP; Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.

    From fragility to resilience


    • Bellina, Séverine; Dominique Darbon; Stein Sundstol Eriksen and Jacob Ole Sending 2009: The legitimacy of the state in fragile situations. Oslo: Norad/ French Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs.
    • OECD 2008: Concepts and dilemmas of state building in fragile situations. Paris: OECD.
    • OECD 2013: Fragile states 2013: resource flows and trends in a shifting world. Paris: OECD.

    Situations of fragility


    • AfDB 2014: Addressing fragility and building resilience in Africa: the African Development Bank Group strategy 2014 – 2019. Retrieved 26 Mar 2015, from….
    • OECD 2008: Concepts and dilemmas of state building in fragile situations. Paris: OECD.
    • OECD 2013: Fragile states 2013: resource flows and trends in a shifting world. Paris: OECD. AfDB (2014a)

    Rain-fed agriculture and conflicts


    • International Crisis Group 2014a: The security challenges of pastoralism in Central Africa. Brussels: International Crisis Group.
    • International Crisis Group 2014b: Water pressures in Central Asia. Brussels: International Crisis Group.
    • Stanfield, J. D.; Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili; Safar, M.Y. and Akram Salam 2013: Community documentation of land tenure and its contribution to state-building in Afghanistan. In: Unruh, John; Williams, Rhodri (eds.): Land and post-conflict peacebuilding. Oxon: Routledge/Earthscan.

    Risk factors around natural resources


    • AfDB 2014b: From fragility to resilience: managing natural resources in fragile states in Africa. Tunis: African Development Bank Group.
    • FAO 2000: Conflict and natural resources management. Rome: FAO.
    • Rüttinger, Lukas; Antoine Morin; Annabelle Houdret; Dennis Tänzler and Clementine Burnley 2011a: Water, crisis and climate change assessment framework. Berlin: Adelphi.

    Fragility hotspots

    Adapted from Harris, Katie; David Keen and Tom Mitchell 2013: When disasters and conflict collide: improving links between disaster resilience and conflict prevention. London: Overseas Development Institute (ODI).

    The commodity super-cycle

    Data from IMF 2014: IMF primary commodity prices. Retrieved 8 Jan 2015, from

    Global food crises


    Heat map: Where is the highest risk of water conflict?

    Heat map: Where is the highest risk of water conflict?


    Map reproduced from Peek, Katie 2014: Where will the world’s water conflicts erupt? A heatmap of war over water. In: Popular Science: The Water Issue, June 2014. Retrieved 10 Dec 2014, from…. Map based on the Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database by the Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University.

    Seven compound climate-fragility risks threaten states and societies

    Survey insights: Is our risk analysis shared by decision-makers and foreign policy practitioners?

    An integrated agenda for resilience

    Survey insights: Existing initiatives and policies


    Humanitarian disaster response: How to ‘do no harm’


    • Alexander, Rajan 2006: Tsunami: build back better. Mantra aside, an aid gone wrong story? Bangalore: Development Consultancy Group.
    • Street, A. 2012: Applying conflict-sensitive methodologies in rapid-onset emergencies. In: Humanitarian Exchange Magazine 1:54, pp n.a.
    • UNEP and OCHA 2014: Environment and humanitarian action, increasing effectiveness, sustainability and accountability. Geneva: Joint UNEP/OCHA Environment Unit.

    ODA recipients 2011

    Source: OECD 2014: Fragile states 2014: domestic revenue mobilisation in fragile states. Paris: OECD.

    Identifying effective interventions

    Adapted from World Bank 2015: World development report 2015: mind, society, and behavior. Washington, DC: World Bank.

    Recommendations: A new commitment for resilience