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Seven questions for the G7 Superforecasting climate-fragility risks for the coming decade

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In this report, Superforecasters spotlight key indicators that G7 decision-makers should monitor over the next decade to provide early warning of the threats that climate change poses to global stability and human security. The consensus views from the Superforecasters paint an alarming picture of the world in 2031: our planet will (still) be on track for disastrous global warming by the end of this century, with insufficient finance available for effective adaptation or mitigation. Climate change will increasingly contribute to population displacement, fragility in megacities and spikes in food prices. However, such outcomes are far from inevitable. Policymakers’ action on these risk areas can avert the worst consequences.

For the report, 30 of the top Superforecasters were asked to answer seven questions about climate-linked risks over the coming decade until 2031:

  1. How effective will multilateralism be in the next decade, in particular around the global climate regime?
  2. To what extent will climate change strengthen international solidarity?
  3. How and where will climate change fuel instability across fragile settings around the world?
  4. How much and where will food prices fuel instability across fragile settings around the world?
  5. As climate change impacts intensify, where and to what extent will megacities in low- and lower-middle-income countries become more fragile?
  6. Where will stresses on water governance increase security risks?
  7. Will oil-producing countries remain stable in a decarbonising world economy?

Download the report here.

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