What are the most significant threats to energy security today? They remain geopolitical ones, argues Gawdat Bahgat. While some would like to isolate the economics of energy from the politics of security, the recent experiences of Egypt, Libya and other states confirm that it’s neither realistic nor possible.
Energy security has historically been linked to one fuel – oil. Indeed, the concept of energy security first gained prominence following the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, during which Arab oil-producing countries imposed an oil embargo on the United States and other countries in retaliation for their support of Israel. Before this episode, a reliable flow of oil from the region was taken for granted and threats to oil supplies were few and far between. In the following decades, the legacy of the embargo shaped global energy policy – with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) defending the rights of producers and the International Energy Agency (IEA) representing consumers.
Analysts and policymakers have since debated the many dimensions of energy security. The concept covers security of supply as well as security of demand. On one hand, consuming countries want to be assured that their energy supplies will not be interrupted. Meanwhile, producing countries seek reliable demand and stable markets for their petroleum products. A few years ago the IEA provided a comprehensive definition of energy security – which had four components. First, the term refers to the availability of energy sources (geology); second, these energy sources should be available at a reasonable price (economics); third, they should be socially acceptable (environment); finally, they should be politically accessible (geo-policy). In other words political conflicts should not block the free trade of energy products.
This paper argues that this fourth dimension of energy security (geo-policy) represents the most significant challenge for states today. The ongoing crisis in Ukraine serves as an important example of this. Because of the country’s geographic location and proximity to Russia, it is an important transit country for energy supplies to Eastern and Central Europe and Turkey. Although the ongoing crisis will take some time to play out and to be fully assessed, disputes between Russia and Ukraine have led to interruptions in supplies in the past. An even more potent example, however, of geopolitical disruption of energy supplies is the recent political and security upheavals in several Arab countries (the so-called Arab Spring).
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