As policy makers in Western countries battle rising populism at home and fail to meet Paris commitments to reduce emissions and support adaptation, the burdens of climate impacts, which fall most heavily on low-income and marginalised communities, will increase societal disparities, growing political grievances. 

The rush to procure and safeguard critical minerals for the energy transition can hinder sustainable, responsible and conflict-sensitive global practices. Efforts towards diversifying the geographical sourcing and processing of critical minerals away from China progress slowly.

Forecasts suggest agricultural production will continue to be exacerbated by climate change, likely increasing price volitality in the future. Poorer countries close to the equator with fewer resources will be hardest hit, likely resulting in political instability associated with food price spikes.

While water stress is increasing worldwide, it is not likely to directly spark international conflict. Water also has the potential to be a strong source of international cooperation with renewed focus on water as a central driver to achieve the SDGs and other global agendas like the Paris Agreement.

In almost every region, population growth, rapid urbanisation, rising consumption, desertification, environmental degradation and climate change will combine to diminish biodiversity. Countries will face worsened water scarcity, food insecurity an deeper inequalities as a result. 

More people facing loss of livelihoods and liveability in highly climate exposed locations will move to urban centres. Already fragile urban contexts will experience increasing socio-political tensions and political mobilisation as the groundswell catalysed by climate change compounds widening economic inequality, and strains governance and service delivery, especially among marginalised populations. Climate change will amplify existing migration patterns. 

Climate change will continue to be both a symptom and cause of declining social connection and community cohesion which poses an obstacle to both peace and climate resilience. Climate will continue to be co-opted by political groups to fuel political tribalism which can hamper climate action and fuel political grievances, particularly in the West, whilst the loss of social bonds due to climate stress or climate-related mobility can also drive conflict.

Where governance institutions in fragile contexts are unable to provide timely and equitable support or safety nets to deal with the impacts of climate change, more people, especially young people, will choose unsafe coping strategies like illegal logging or joining armed groups.