Migration & climate change regional focus: Southern Libya
Southern Libya is experiencing a convergence of climate extremes and structural vulnerabilities that directly affect both residents and migrants. Remote sensing evidence from 2001–2024 reveals persistent drought, highly variable precipitation oscillating between long dry spells and flash floods, extreme land-surface temperatures exceeding 50°C in the south, and land use changes that expand cropland at the expense of natural vegetation. These shifts intensify desertification, reduce grazing grounds, and place unsustainable pressure on scarce groundwater resources.
Survey findings from the Solution and Mobility Index reinforce this picture, respondents consistently link climate anomalies to livelihood impacts: loss of income (most frequent), reduced agricultural production, scarcity of safe drinking water, livestock deaths, biodiversity loss, health hazards, and in some cases relocation. Migrants, often in precarious conditions, face compounded risks. From the sample interviewed in southern Libya, 45% lack formal labor contracts, 61% pay for their own rented housing, and 96% entered Libya through unofficial routes. This makes them highly exposed to climate shocks: heat-waves disrupt outdoor labor, flash floods damage poorly built housing, and drought reduces food and water access.
The convergence of satellite-based climate evidence with lived testimonies underscores a climate–migration nexus in southern Libya. Drought erodes the viability of rainfed farming and pastoralism; erratic rainfall produces both crop failure and flash floods; heat waves undermine labor capacity and health; and land use change sacrifices long-term resilience for short-term gains. These dynamics, layered on top of structural aridity and fragile governance, create conditions where migration becomes both a coping strategy and a necessity.
Insights about the key climate drivers:
Observed evidence:
- Remote Sensing: VCI shows repeated vegetation stress, esp. 2010–2011, 2016–2017, 2021–2023
- Survey: 7/71 cited drought as most frequent hazard; >40% land exposed to hazards
Migration & livelihoods impact:
- Reduced crop yields & fodder availability → loss of income
- Livestock deaths due to lack of water & veterinary care
- Push factors for rural–urban and cross-border migration
Observed evidence:
- Remote Sensing: High rainfall anomalies in 2019 & 2023, flash flood signatures
- Survey: 9/71 reported floods; widespread “heavier and irregular rainfall” reported over 10 years
Migration & livelihoods impact:
- Housing and infrastructure damage → displacement
- Contaminated wells → water insecurity
- Short-term relocation or mobility to safer areas
Observed evidence:
- Remote Sensing: Surface temps >50°C in south during summers post-2012
- Survey: Frequent reporting of “increased temperatures” and “shorter seasons.”
Migration & livelihoods impact:
- Outdoor labor (migrants, farmers) disrupted
- Increased livestock mortality & crop stress
- Health hazards (heat stress, disease outbreaks) → pressure to migrate
Observed evidence:
- Expansion of bare soil and degraded rangeland; shrinking of natural vegetation zones
- Survey: Many reported soil degradation, biodiversity loss, and desertification
Migration & livelihoods impact:
- Long-term decline of rainfed farming & pastoralism
- Heightened conflict over land and water access
- Increased migration to areas with better livelihood opportunities
Observed evidence:
- Survey: 45% reported inability to afford vet services, >40% cited high costs of inputs, market access barriers, and livestock losses from conflict
Migration & livelihoods impact:
- Farmers and herders pushed out of livelihoods
- Migrants (esp. irregular workers) face reduced job opportunities and income insecurity
- Climate stress amplifies economic drivers of migration
Read the full report
The description was excerpted from the report website and executive summary.
