Ensuring that we look forwards, not just back, Weathering Risk combines state-of-the-art quantitative and qualitative assessments and scenario-based foresight methods in an innovative and replicable way. The aim is to identify risks and prioritise entry points for action to promote sustainable peace and prevent the emergence and escalation of conflict linked to climate change impacts. Specifically, this assessment methodology will:
- Integrate quantitative and qualitative methods to climate-security analysis;
- Include innovative climate impact data, conflict analysis and scenario methods;
- Be flexible in application in terms of geography and depth of analysis, and
- Be forward looking.
The Weathering Risk approach consists of five steps:
1. Climate impact analysis
2. Contextual analysis of climate-related security risks
3. Foresight and scenario planning: consultations and expert judgement elicitation
4. Machine Learning based assumption testing and validation process
5. Identification of responses
The Strategic Advisory Board of Weathering Risk, the climate and security risk and foresight assessment initiative, met for its inaugural session on 19th January 2021. Hosted by adelphi and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the meeting brought leading figures in development, environmental, foreign and security policy from around the world together to discuss the key objectives and strategic priorities of the initiative.