Linkages between climate change, human mobility and security in South-Eastern Europe
South Eastern Europe (SEE) is increasingly exposed to climate-related hazards. Heatwaves, droughts, floods and wildfires are becoming more frequent and severe, exacerbating socio-economic vulnerabilities and reshaping patterns of human mobility across the region. High levels of emigration are depleting the skilled workforce needed for climate adaptation and the green transition, while rapid urbanisation strains infrastructure in cities ill-equipped to cope. Rural areas, meanwhile, are increasingly exposed to environmental degradation, governance vacuums and heightened security risks.
Key Takeaways:
- Climate risks are intensifying across South-Eastern Europe: South-Eastern Europe (SEE) is increasingly exposed to climate-related hazards, including more frequent and severe heatwaves, droughts, floods and wildfires. These escalating risks are amplifying existing socio-economic vulnerabilities and contributing to more complex patterns of internal displacement, rural-to-urban migration, and transborder movements. These dynamics highlight the need for integrated approaches to climate adaptation, disaster risk reduction (DRR), migration governance and security frameworks in order to effectively address the region’s evolving challenges.
- Droughts and land degradation drive human mobility: Droughts and land degradation are undermining agriculture and tourism, prompting youth out-migration and leaving behind ageing populations with reduced adaptive capacity. These trends are deepening regional inequalities. Evidence shows that increased drought exposure is closely linked to a notable rise in internal migration, with rural communities particularly vulnerable owing to their heavy reliance on agriculture. This highlights the need to promote climate-resilient livelihoods and provide targeted support for at-risk populations in order to reduce climate-driven mobility and strengthen community resilience.
- Rural depopulation creates vulnerabilities: High levels of urbanization, as well as high emigration rates, are leaving rural areas increasingly vulnerable to environmental degradation, inadequate services and deteriorating infrastructure. These conditions also create opportunities for illicit activities and the criminal exploitation of abandoned lands. Such dynamics contribute to governance vacuums and heightened security risks, underscoring the need for targeted rural development, effective land management and robust security interventions.
- Rapid urbanization strains the infrastructure: Rapid rural-to-urban migration is placing a significant strain on the urban infrastructure across South-Eastern Europe, leading to undersized drainage systems, deteriorating air quality and increased vulnerability to flooding. Several of the region’s capitals bear the brunt of these challenges and are among the world’s most polluted urban centres. This highlights the urgent need for integrated climate adaptation and urban planning, substantial investment in resilient infrastructure, and targeted environmental policy interventions to safeguard public health and enhance urban sustainability.
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The description was excerpted from the report.
