Lukas Rüttinger

Lukas Rüttinger is Senior Advisor at adelphi. He has been working at the intersection of environment, development, foreign and security policy for more than ten years. He has worked on the security implications of climate change for the UN, the OSCE, the European Commission, the European External Action Service, the German Foreign Ministry, and the G7 leading the work on the “A New Climate For Peace” report. Through his work, Lukas is creating solutions for complex challenges and crises that are emerging from the interplay between environmental issues, climate change, socio-economic challenges such as rising inequality, governance problems and political instability.

Lukas Rüttinger TEAM bios (CD Platfrom)


What does the IPCC report tell us about climate and conflict?

Whilst at first sight it may not seem explicitly so, the new IPCC report contains a lot of important findings on the links between climate change and conflict. They underline and confirm important lessons that have been emerging from recent research: climate change does contribute to increased conflict, but along indirect pathways and via intermediate factors such as governance. Adapting to and mitigating climate change can also play an important role in addressing many drivers of conflict and building peace.

SDG 12: Its importance for foreign policy objectives

Resource consumption has grown exponentially over the past: between 1970 and 2010, the quantity of extracted materials has tripled. Not only the overall amount of resources extracted and consumed has risen rapidly, but also the diversity of resources has grown. While half a century ago, only a few materials such as wood, brick, iron, copper, and plastics were in high demand worldwide, today products are more complex and require a wide range of materials.

Syria is a warning sign: How climate change can contribute to fragility

Syria is a warning sign of the crises to come. It gives us an important lesson on the links between livelihood insecurity, climate change and fragility. However, most of the reporting on the current crisis focuses on the violence and the extent of destruction. While this kind of reporting is important as it can keep the crisis on the political agenda and hopefully spur action to decrease human suffering and find solutions to the conflicts, it does not provide us with a deep understanding of how the crisis emerged in the first place and thus misses some key points which might help us prevent the next crisis from happening.

The nature of conflict and peace: The links between environment, security and peace and their importance for the UN

REPORT: A new report by WWF and adelphi looks at the complex nexus between nature and security. The report outlines four pathways through which environmental degradation and biodiversity loss act as drivers of insecurity and exacerbate conflict situations, besides advancing further environmental degradation.



Climate Risk Profile: Somalia


Weathering Risk’s Climate Risk Profile: Somalia provides policymakers and practitioners in the field with an overview of projected climate parameters and related impacts on different sectors from now until 2080 under two different climate change scenarios.

Weathering risk methodology paper_thumbnail

Weathering Risk – Methodology Paper

Weathering risk methodology paper_thumbnail

The new and unique Weathering Risk Methodology provides decision-makers and practitioners across all sectors with a comprehensive and scalable research approach for climate-related security risks. It brings together the most current, downscaled climate impact data, localised conflict analysis and forward-looking risk projections to identify and convert strategic uncertainty into manageable risk.


Climate-Fragility Risk Brief: Jordan, Palestine and Israel


The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is considered a climate-security hotspot due to its natural water scarcity, low levels of socio-ecological resilience, social tensions and political conflicts. This report focuses on the area known as the Levant, comprising Jordan, Israel, and Palestine, and identifies ways in which climate change will further undermine the already tenuous political, social and economic stability of the region.

CSEN Climate-Fragility Risk Brief Sudan

Climate-Fragility Risk Brief: Sudan

CSEN Climate-Fragility Risk Brief Sudan

In Sudan, the term ‘climate war’ has often been used to draw a direct causal link between climate change and conflict. In reality, these conflicts are far more complex, which can be traced back to a history of regional marginalisation, ethno-occupational tensions, and failures in governance. ​​​​​​​This climate-fragility risk brief outlines three ways in which climate change interacts with and contributes to conflict and fragility in Sudan, and two broad but interlinked levels of entry points for addressing climate-fragility risks in the country.

Climate-Fragility Risk Brief: Nepal

Although Nepal’s overall security situation has improved considerably and is stable, important underlying drivers and structural causes of conflict still exist. Climate change accentuates Nepal’s economic and political vulnerabilities. Climate impacts can act as a stressor on existing drivers and structural causes of conflict, adding an additional layer of risk to Nepal’s resilience.

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Climate Change and Mining. A Foreign Policy Perspective

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The growing number and impact of extreme weather events has led to increasing awareness in the extractives industries of the potential negative impacts of climate change. The industry has started thinking about its own vulnerabilities and the risks climate change could pose. However, there has been little research and debate that takes a more comprehensive look at the links between climate change and mining.

Driving Transformative Change: Foreign Affairs and the 2030 Agenda

Foreign policy can pave the way for transformative change by actively supporting a major achievement of multilateralism: the 2030 Agenda with its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These goals have a common aim: more peace and justice worldwide. But what exactly is the role of foreign policy in the global sustainability architecture? What are the fields of engagement and tools of a new "Diplomacy for Sustainability"?

Beyond 16: The SDGs and the opportunity to build a more peaceful world

The foreign policy community faces a choice. It can continue to allow unacceptable levels of violence and conflict to undermine individual countries and the global order. Or it can build a new consensus that violence is a preventable epidemic. This would take seriously a growing body of evidence showing what is most likely to work to steer the world back toward global peace, resilient societies, and more sustainable prosperity.

1 Climate change and Security in Japan - Global Climate Fragility Risks - English

Climate-Fragility Risks - The Global Perspective

1 Climate change and Security in Japan - Global Climate Fragility Risks - English

Integrating policies and programmes in three key sectors—climate change adaptation, development and humanitarian aid, and peacebuilding—are crucial to help strengthen resilience to climate-fragility risks and achieve significant co-benefits.

Insurgency Non State Armed Groups Terrorism Climate Change

Insurgency, Terrorism and Organised Crime in a Warming Climate

Insurgency Non State Armed Groups Terrorism Climate Change

As the climate changes, so too do the conditions in which non-state armed groups operate. The complex risks presented by conflicts, climate change and increasingly fragile geophysical and socio-political conditions can contribute to the emergence and growth of non-state armed groups. Our new report examines the links between climate-fragility risks and non-state armed groups.

Migration, environment and climate change: Responding via climate change adaptation policy

With the advance of climate change and environmental changes threatening livelihoods, their impacts on migration and displacement are receiving increasing attention in research, politics, and civil society. The issue is complex and multi-dimensional, with environmental changes affecting human mobility in diverse ways. The three reports in this series thus evaluate the evidence base for policymaking, and provide entry points for responses in the field of climate change adaptation.

Understanding Fragile Cities – The Nexus Between Migration, Climate Change and Urban Fragility

World-wide, cities are on the advance. Today, they host more than half of the world's population and every minute, their population grows by 140 people: 200,000 a day, 1.5 million a week. Cities have become so powerful that some even sign international agreement with nation states, conducting their own foreign policy. However, the scale and pace of current urbanization trends poses a threat to even the best managed cities.

Climate-Fragility Profile: Lake Chad Basin

This Climate-Fragility profile is envisaged as a first component of a Climate-Fragility Risk Assessment process – a process for actors working in contexts affected by climate and fragility risks to understand the linked nature of these risks and plan, design, implement and evaluate programmes to respond positively to these risks. It summarizes the key challenges the Lake Chad region is experiencing as a consequence of the interplay between climate change and fragility.

Climate change, conflict and humanitarian action

Exploring the relationship between humanitarian action, conflict, climate and environment has never been more urgent. The humanitarian sector is stretched to the limit. It is struggling to meet the growing demands posed by climate change, the changing nature of conflict, the increasing severity of disasters and the protracted nature of crises. Currently, over 125 million people require humanitarian assistance and over 60 million have been displaced. The prospects for the future show no abatement, with climate change only projected to increase the number and intensity of catastrophes.

Linking Adaptation and Peacebuilding - Lessons Learned and the Way Forward

Evidence from existing programs shows that climate change adaptation interventions can contribute to peacebuilding, and peacebuilding can have significant adaptation benefits. There is growing scientific consensus that climate change and conflict are linked and that climate change poses complex risks to building and sustaining peace. Emerging findings from development programming confirm this. A number of contextual factors such as livelihood and food security, natural resources governance, state legitimacy and effectiveness, migration, social cohesion and marginalisation are decisive in shaping these climate-fragility risks.


Lukas Rüttinger mining interview

The Links between Climate Change and Mining

Lukas Rüttinger mining interview

In the interview, Lukas Rüttinger, Senior Project Manager at adelphi, explains why conflicts will increase with climate change kicking in and highlights how states could address the challenge.